Gala Braeburn Granny Smith NZ Rose

Apple Bytes - New Zealand Apple Newsletter

Issue 3: 7 February 2008

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Ref: Pipfruit NZ Inc, Crop Estimate
Media Statement

NZ Pipfruit Crop Estimate 2008 = 15.5m Cartons

Slightly down on last year by 5.6%,
Braeburn mainly affected with reduction -18-20%
Royal Gala similar volumes

Pipfruit New Zealand recently announced its apple and pear export crop estimate for the 2008 season.

Total exports of apples and pears are estimated at 15.5 million 18kg cases or 279,000 tonnes, representing a decrease of 6% compared with last year's crop of 16.4 million cases.

The reduced crop comes from spring frosts in Hawke's Bay, our major growing district.

The most affected variety was Braeburn – which is down by nearly 20% (as predicted in our last newsletter) from 6 million cases to 4.8 million cases. This is the lowest Braeburn volume for at least 10 years.

Royal Gala is showing a similar volume to 2007 at 5.6 million cases, or 100,000 tonnes. The major mover amongst varieties is the ENZA controlled variety Jazz, which is expected to double to nearly 800,000 cases. It becomes the fourth largest variety behind Royal Gala, Braeburn and Fuji.

The 2008 season also marks the rollout of "Apple Futures", a three year initiative which aims to delivery fruit to market with no detectable residues. "The uptake from growers in year one has been exceptional. This programme confirms the New Zealand apple and pear industry's commitment to develop sustainable growing practices" Mr Beaven from Pipfruit NZ stated.

Despite the frosts the largest percentage of the export volume will still come from Hawke's Bay which is expected to supply 58% of the crop, at 8.9 million cases, while Nelson production will increase slightly to 5.5 million cases, or 36% of the national crop. Of the smaller growing regions, Central Otago is expecting to increase production by 16% to 442,000 cases, while the balance of the crop will come from Waikato, Gisborne and Wairarapa.

Braeburn down 20% - Forecast 5.6m cartons

Last year was the biggest crop of Braeburn to be exported and while Hawkes Bay growers feel the recent loss of 20% Braeburn, the reduced volume may be a blessing in disguise for the industry.

Size profile for Braeburn looks as follows with 33.6% of Braeburn count 90# and larger.

60#	70#	80#	90#	100#	110#	120#	135#	150#	165#
1%	4%	11%	17.6%	21%	16.9%	13.8%	10.5%	4%	0.20%

Variety Mix (Area%)

Comparison – 2007 Crop vs 2008

Variety:	2007 Actual	2008 Forecast	Variation
Braeburn	5,975,462	4,864,627	- 18.6%
Royal Gala	5,735,216	5,600,914	- 2%
Fuji Apples	1,424,310	1,377,039	- 3.3%
Pacific Rose	431,926	271,989	- 37%
Granny Smith	378,366	363,674	- 3.9%
Pacific Queen	281,592	292,858	+ 3.9%
Red Delicious	172,883	No figures	Est same
Pacific Beauty	169,112	93,434	- 44.8%
Jazz	415,051	791,717	+ 90.8%

Other apple varieties up by 17.4%
All together total volume down on last season by 5.6%

NZ Beauty – 10 February:
93,434 cartons, down 44.8%

NZ Beauty is the first variety to kick the season off. Majority of harvest around 10 February – a few weeks before Royal Gala. This is a very small variety by volume in New Zealand. It is estimated that approximately 50% of the volume, will be consumed on the local market. NZ Beauty is currently on local supermarket shelves – colour is good.

Last year we had no NZ Beauty to offer, and it looks to be the same in 2008 with strong demand from the local market.

Royal Gala – 17 February:
Estimated 4.8m cartons

Similar volume to 2007 season. Royal Gala is expected to begin with early season supply starting 3 rd week of February. First exports loaded out from the 17-24 February onwards – just as last season, with the main export volume starting the following week. Total volume of fruit 120# count and smaller 2.3m tce's – more than last year. Average size forecasted at 112# for this year's crop.

Size profile for 2008 is estimated as follows:

60#	70#	80#	90#	100#	110#	120#	135#	150#	165#
0%	1.3%	5.5%	12.8%	19.9%	19.4%	18.8%	115.0%	6.0%	1.1%

Red Delicious – 15 March:

Volumes expected to be similar to last year with around 170,000 tces. Red Delicious expected to harvest around the 15th March. New Zealand only produces a small amount of Red Delicious.

Red Delicious was packed last season in 18kg for sizes 70,80,90 – and 20kg for sizes 100, 110, 120, 125.

There is strong demand from domestic market for Red Delicious. Last year most of our Red Delicious went to local market due to high prices.

NZ Queen – 20 March:
Volume slightly Up 3.9%

NZ Queen – harvest around 20 March. This variety generally accounts for 2-3% of the total crop. Colour generally sits around 60-70%.

Some russet is expected on this year's crop, caused by the frost in December. Not much under 120# count – most of the small fruit was bagged and kept for local supermarkets.

Braeburn – 26 March:
5.6m cartons

Braeburn generally starts around the 26th March.

Approximately 10% will be allocated to C.A which will open early June. Volumes down due to frost – by 20% in the Hawkes Bay Region.

Average size forecast around a 105# count.

NZ Rose – 01 April:
271,989 Cartons

Size anticipated to average a 84# count.

NZ Rose harvest in Early April. Colour was exceptionally good 2007, fruit was very clean with very little russet. Strong demand from Asian markets. Some Russet expected for 2008 due to frost experienced in December during flowering.

This season colour expected to average 60-70% at picking.

Size will average around 90# count. Hardly anything below a 120# count.
Packed in 18kg carton. Good volumes, but no over-supply, as local market will pick up any spare fruit.

NZ Granny –10 April:

Size Anticipated to average a 101# count.

Packed in 18kg Cartons. Last season most were smart fresh treated to enhance quality. Colour was good.

Average size approximately 100# count. Strong demand from USA for large counts 70,80,90.

Smalls will be bagged from size #120 and down for local supermarkets.

Prices

Prices for each variety expected 10 days prior to harvest. Please let us know your interest and we will endeavor to quote you as prices become available.

Exchange Rate – The USD continues to weaken

The US economy continues to weaken as unemployment rates sat at 4.9% today. This is causing the NZD to revisit the highs. This is the 4th visit to 0.79+ levels since the all time high of 0.8110 in July 2007. USD is causing all the trouble, not to mention the yield pick-up of kiwi vs US. Exchange rates will be a major factor in returns to the grower. Forecasted FX rates for Feb/Mar are expected to be in the 0.78 range.

We will be using the services of Maersk and PIL shipping lines for the coming season.
We look forward to hearing from you.

Best Regards,

Denise

Disclaimer:

Information has come from a variety of sources and is largely summary articles. References are indicated. Where opinions are expressed they are of the writer, and do not necessarily represent the New Zealand Apple Industry. Fresh Fruits Company Ltd cannot be held responsible for damages which may be incurred as a result of any person acting upon information in this publication.

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